Pinochio graphic (0_vUThScVrWznJYbkf.png) from ” 73.6 % of statistics are made up “ by Mark Suster on Feb. 15, 2010, How to Interpret Analyst Reports by Money Life at: https://www.moneylife.in/article/736-percentage-of-all-statistics-are-made-up/3794.html)
This article is only 50% of what it could be—if I was a statistician. But it is 89% more reliable than what many others will tell you about how to talk using numbers. With the media throwing statistics our way every day, in multiple ways, we need to have at least a small percent of skepticism to help us keep our wits about us. 87% of us have already given up. That leaves 52 people on my block still ready and willing to give it their all.
There is a fabulous quote that I use a lot. “Liars figure and figures lie.” I wondered who originally said it, and it seems there’s an 80% chance that it was Mark Twain. Actually, the quote is attributed to Mark Twain & Carroll D. Wright from a previous saying that has morphed into the one we hear today: “Figures don’t lie, but liars do figure.”
This quote actually has a long history of morphing from one version to another.
According to Carroll D. Wright: “The old saying is that “figures will not lie,” but a new saying is “liars will figure.” It is our duty, as practical statisticians, to prevent the liar from figuring; in other words, to prevent him from perverting the truth, in the interest of some theory he wishes to establish.”
Col. L. F. Copeland during a speech, said: “Mathematics is an exact fact; figures don’t lie, but liars sometimes figure.” This quote is from 1889 and if paraphrased this way – “all men” – who deal in statistics “are liars,” – it’s not far from the truth.
Everyone (it seems) uses figures to carry a point. That is the great trouble with statistics; liars and cranks will add, subtract, divide and theorize. It is the practice of many agencies, organizations and especially politicians, to choose data and use it conveniently to make points in their favor. So, take statistics with a pinch of salt.
In the hot-topic debates these days, folks are using research data, study data and statistics. Lots and lots of numbers that help sway us one way or the other, help defend one opinion or another. The percentage of deaths, number of new cases, number of murders, among of violence, how many overwhelmed hospitals, percent of voter turnout, amount of climate change, number of natural disasters, number of acres burned, etc. is lauded or warned against depending on who is speaking.
Ronald H. Coase, a renowned British Economist is the author of the quote- “if you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything”. – Timothy Akinyomi
“If you torture numbers long enough, they’ll admit to anything.” Is another of my favorite quotes is attributed to Ronald H. Coase. That quote shows that depending on what you want to show, you can leave out, select specific methods or data that supports our view or gives the conclusion you want.
Don’t you just love advertisements that spout statistics? They are always quoting a juicy statistic or two to inform you of how many/how much more – or less, their product is.
For instance, I bet you’ve heard something like this. “Proper medication will cure your cold in about seven days, otherwise it will take a week.” Okay! I’ll go for the seven days, because a week seems longer than the seven days. Averages provide relationships between two things, trends and graphs are not always what they seem.
Statistics seem like a secret language in our fact-minded culture. Yet, they are employed to inflate, confuse, over simplify and sensationalize. Politicians base lots of their information on a sample of people (How big? Which area? Who are your test subjects?) and they are able to come up with many interesting stats—which may/may not measure what you think they are measuring.
A well-wrapped statistic is better than a big lie because it misleads, yet it cannot be pinned on you. It is the “little dash of powder, little pot of paint makes your important fact ‘look like what it ain’t’.”
Seventy three point six percent of statistics are made up—this from Mark Suster, in his Feb 15, 2010, article “How to Interpret Analyst Reports by Money Life . This last stat is funny to me, because when I quote it, I usually say a percent in the 50’s, such as 53% or 58%, but in reality, that statistic of made-up stats is actually 50% higher than what I quote.
There is even a book that shares the secrets of using statistics to your benefit. How To Lie With Statistics by Darrel Huff and Irving Gets will provide you with all the information to use statistics to win your arguments or know how others use statistics to sway your opinions. Mr. Huff says “The crooks already know these tricks. Honest men (and women) must learn them in self-defense.”
“Mark Twain popularized the quote most attributed to the Prime Minister of Great Britain, Benjamin Disraeli, “there are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics.” The quote is meant to highlight the deceiving but persuasive power of numbers.” – Mark Suster article
I laugh at the apples that claim to be gluten free. Weren’t they always gluten free? The dish soaps that are 34% more concentrated makes me wonder-how much water was taken out? And more important, can I use a smaller amount and get as many suds? – sometimes percentages in advertising are facts that tell us nothing, but leave the impression that they have done something wonderful for us.
Just to define my usage of the term, here’s a little definition:
Statistics is the practice (or science) of collecting and analyzing numerical data in large quantities, especially for the purpose of inferring proportions in a whole from those in a representative sample. (Wikipedia) It is a crucial process behind how we make discoveries in science, make decisions based on data, and make predictions. Is a statistic a lie? That would depend on how accurately it is quoted and what percent of deviation from its true meaning it is stretched.
A statistic is just a number. … But numbers are more dangerous than words, because numbers are associated with math, and math is associated with fact. But facts are something special. Facts are complete and unbiased enough to tell you something relevant to understanding the past or predicting the future” (from “The difference between a statistic and a fact”, Colaborative Fund, Nov 17, 2016)
“A statistic is just a number. And numbers are as easily manipulatable, incomplete, and misleading as words are. But they’re more dangerous than words, because numbers are associated with math, and math is associated with fact” (Collaborative Fund)
The Collaborative Fund gives us more information about facts, (which we should know) because they help us validate or debug statistics thrown at us. Because facts are special in that they are complete and unbiased. Facts tell you something specific without knowing your goals or biases, politics or religious orientation. Facts are not trying to tell your story. They just explain reality in a blunt and unadorned way. Statistics are the glitter that is not necessarily gold.
So, if we are to make wise choices, if we are to understand who and what we are voting for, or purchasing, or agreeing to, we need to see the numbers for what they are. Good luck. I’m 48% certain that my vote will count for something.
“If we have data, let’s look at data. If all we have are opinions, let’s go with mine.” — James Love Barksdale
Resources:
“Figures don’t lie, but Liars do figure” Quote Investigator, at: https://quoteinvestigator.com/2010/11/15/liars-figure/
The difference between a Statistic and a Fact by Collaborative Fund at: https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-difference-between-a-stat-and-a-fact/
73.6 % of statistics are made up by Mark Suster on Feb. 15, 2010, How to Interpret Analyst Reports by Money Life at: https://www.moneylife.in/article/736-percentage-of-all-statistics-are-made-up/3794.html)
How To Lie With Statistics by Darrel Huff and Irving Gets, W.W. Norton & Company, Inc. 1954, 1982,
“Lessons on How to Lie With Statistics” by Will Koehrsen, July 28, 2019 at Toward Data Science at: https://towardsdatascience.com/lessons-from-how-to-lie-with-statistics-57060c0d2f1
Pinochio graphic from ” 73.6 % of statistics are made up “ by Mark Suster on Feb. 15, 2010, How to Interpret Analyst Reports by Money Life at: https://www.moneylife.in/article/736-percentage-of-all-statistics-are-made-up/3794.html)
“If you torture data long enough it will confess to anything”. By Timothy Akinyomi, Jan 29,2020 at: Weekender, Business day at: https://businessday.ng/opinion/article/if-you-torture-the-data-long-enough-it-will-confess-to-anything/#:~:text=Ronald%20H.,it%20will%20confess%20to%20anything%E2%80%9D.
“7 Data Science Quotes to Remember” Cornelius Yudha Wijaya, on Jun 10,2020 Toward Data Science at: https://towardsdatascience.com/7-data-science-quotes-to-remember-e9b9da55f5e8